Adumbration

The election has upset plans and expectations around the globe, but there's plenty of additional disapppointment to come with the fallout, I'm sure.  One likely place to look will be around the consequences of large increases to the minimum wage allowed by law for people to engage in productive work.   I've written on this previously, but more recent news has a few references of note.

The Seattle Times has a revealing map showing county-by-county differences in percent of workers currently paid less than what will be the new minimum, enacted as part of Initiative 1433.  The legal minimum increases statewide from $9.47 to $13.50 by 2020, affecting what looks like more than 10% of workers across Washington.

In Seattle, for example, the minimum wage is set to rise to $15 an hour for all workers by 2021 — and in King County as a whole, only 7.8 percent of jobs pay below $13.50. But in Yakima County, 30.5 percent of low-wage jobs will get a boost from the new increase.

The sub-head to the story seems a bit optimisitic:  "Workers in Seattle won't notice a difference, but in Yakima County? Low-wage workers can expect a big raise."  It would be interesting to see how the low wage percentage compares with the corresponding fraction of the vote totals in those localities.  

If you have ever thought twice about buying something upon finding that the price was 50% higher, ask yourself why we won't find a similar reaction affecting the employment prospects for low skilled workers when the minimum wage rises to $15.    The way people actually behave is that they buy less of something when the price is higher. that will make it harder for some people to find work at all. 

For a discussion of some of the minimum wage pros and cons, see this debate on the subject of the similar changes taking place in California, where they recently passed a law that will raise the state's minimum wage to $15/hr by 2022; the potential impact in rural areas could be subject of comparison in a couple more years.