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Election predictions, 2004
I saw [LP Presidential candidate Michael] Badnarik in Seattle last year. At the time I deemed his approach was too obtuse for the electorate, but supported his campaign. One of my approaches this year was to point out the workings of the Electoral College, noting that Kerry was bound to win the west, so people around here could vote on the basis of factors other than simply the fear someone worse would get elected.
As for my predictions, some of you know that last spring I bet a couple people that Bush would be re-elected. Not a pleasant prospect (Kerry's most noted advantage was that he was not Bush), but I thought the bet could be a hedge against the worse outcome. Unfortunately I expect substantially greater loss in civil liberties than my financial gain from these wagers. No doubt Kerry would have proceeded along a similar path, but my best hope was that the R's would retain control over congress and we'd have deadlock for four years.
I also tracked the Iowa Electronic Markets for the outcome prediction, which had been showing Bush to win for months. As I watched the results come in on Tuesday I admit to some denial. I looked at the Florida results and thought that clearly Kerry would prevail there, even as my eyes saw the preponderance of red counties.
Go see "Team America". It will be even more relevant 4 years from now.
This entry was posted on November 6th, 2004 at 14:52:00 by Adumbrator and is filed under Welcome.
